Fight or Flight: Gauging Taiwanese Citizens' Willingness to Defend through a Conjoint Experiment

• In Event: Willingness to Defend One’s Country: the Baltic States and Taiwan in the Shadow of Two Hostile Neighbors

Abstract

Ronan Fu, Nick Lin, Wei-hao Huang, Elaine Lee, and Yao-Yuan Yeh

The motivations compelling citizens to defend their homeland is a matter of critical import in the study of international relations. While there is a plethora of research on this subject, the simultaneous exploration of several theoretically-important factors has largely been absent. Directly addressing this gap, we employ a conjoint experiment designed to gauge Taiwanese citizens’ willingness to defend, offering a comprehensive empirical lens on these interconnected factors. Our study breaks new theoretical ground by positing and demonstrating that expectations of wealth redistribution in a post-war context can significantly influence a citizen’s willingness to defend their nation. Empirically, our results highlight the anticipated outcome of the war as a pivotal determinant. Taiwanese citizens, encouraged by the prospect of their nation’s victory, fewer anticipated casualties, and a clear strategic commitment from the United States towards Taiwan, show heightened defense willingness. Further, underscoring our central theoretical contribution, we observe that positive anticipations of post-war wealth redistribution robustly enhance defense support. This research illuminates the multifaceted motivations for defense while pioneering the integration of economic expectations into the wartime decision-making discourse.

Author

• Wei-hao Huang, National Sun Yat-sen University