Societal response to NATO’s efforts to deter Russia in the Baltic region: survey evidence from Latvia.

• In Event: Regional Security in the Face of Russian Aggression

Abstract

Baltic states are widely regarded as vulnerable NATO frontline allies. They have considerably increased military spending since 2014, but their ability to deny Russia a quick and decisive military victory is questionable. In addition, NATO’s military presence in the Baltic region remains limited, and the Alliance may run into difficulties if it has to reinforce its military presence in the Baltic region at short notice. To deter Russia, NATO has since 2017 deployed three multinational NATO Enhanced Forward Presence Battlegroups to Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. NATO’s military presence, however, remains small in the range of 1000-1500 troops in each Baltic state. NATO Madrid (2022) and Vilnius (2023) summits saw allies committing to surging each battlegroup to a brigade-sized unit, but this remains a work in progress. This undermines NATO’s deterrence posture vis-à-vis Russia, and it may have profound effects on political and societal dynamics in the Baltic states, as their populations may conclude that NATO security guarantees are hollow and act accordingly. This study builds on the existing literature on deterrence and military tripwires and aims to investigate the extent to which society in Latvia has confidence in NATO’s ability and willingness to defend against a potential military aggression of Russia under a variety of conflict scenarios. The study will use the dataset from a nationally representative public opinion survey conducted in November 2023 to demonstrate the extent to which Latvia's society has confidence in NATO security guarantees.

Short Bio

Toms Rostoks, PhD, is the Director of the Centre for Security and Strategic Research at the National Defence Academy of Latvia. He is also an Associate Professor of International Relations at the University of Latvia. Toms is the author (and co-author) of several academic publications including the edited volume Deterring Russia in Europe (Routledge 2018) and articles in Nationalities Papers, JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies, Journal of Baltic Studies, Canadian Journal of European and Russian Studies, and Journal on Baltic Security. His current research interests include deterrence, state intentions, comprehensive state defence, Latvia’s decision to transition back to conscription, and the relationship between public opinion and security and defence policy.

Author

• Toms Rostoks, Latvian National Defence Academy