Kto–kogo: Foreign Interference, Domestic Actors, and the Rise of Populism in Estonia

Session Submission Type: Panel

Abstract

The study of populism and great powers’ disinformation are increasingly interlinked, as a global feedback loop between Russian state media, American alt-right messaging and domestic political entrepreneurs in Estonia creates an online ecosystem and increasing convergence in global populist narratives (Foster 2022). Yet the empirical study of the links between Russian strategic narratives and populism in Estonia and other Baltic states, as well as the problematization of global populism from an Estonian vantagepoint, remain largely understudied and untheorized.

Helena Eglit from Stanford leads by presenting her research on the links between Russian state policy and domestic populists in Estonia, and Moscow’s influence on the trajectory of populism. Holger Mölder from TalTech follows with his work on polarization, populism and the construction of ethnonationalism in Estonia in the backdrop of Russia’s war on Ukraine. This builds on his recent scholarship on Russian strategic narratives on its war against Ukraine and how these strategic narratives target sub-groups within Estonia – including unlikely audiences among ethnic Estonians. Finally, Noel Foster from the Naval War College examines the ramifications for social scientists of growing populism and distrust directed towards academia, along with other epistemic institutions, with a methodological contribution on survey and interview hesitancy among vulnerable and hard-to-reach populations in Estonia, the ethics of human subjects research on disinformation, and methodological innovations to address this growing problem.

Short Bio

Helena Eglit is a postgraduate student at Stanford University. She works as the lead research assistant for a Minerva Research Initiative-funded Princeton University project on Russian disinformation in the Baltic states, and is currently conducting research for her master's thesis on this subject at Stanford. Helena has previously focused on Western perceptions of Estonia, with specific attention given to double standards and Western orientalism in the 1990s.

Dr. Holger Mölder is an Estonian political scientist and Associate Professor in International Relations and Security Studies at the Tallinn University of Technology (TalTech). He has a PhD in Political Science from the University of Tartu and an MA in International Security and Civil Military Relations from the US Naval Postgraduate School. Previously, he served for nearly 20 years in the Estonian Ministry of Defense. His main research interests cover various international security issues, political cultures, influence and information operations, and psychological warfare. His most recent publications are an article The Prospects of Strategic Imagination in Explaining International Security Challenges (Quality & Quantity, Springer. 2022); a chapter Culture of Fear: the Decline of Europe in Russian political imagination in Krouwel, A.; Önnerfors, A. (Ed.). Continent of Conspiracies: Conspiracy Theories in and about Europe (Thengdon-on-Thames, England, UK: Routledge, 2021) and edited volumes The Russian Federation in the Global Knowledge Warfare - Influence Operations in Europe and Its Neighborhood (Cham, Switzerland: Springer Nature, edited with A.Chochia, T.Kerikmäe and V.Sazonov, 2021), Producing Cultural Change in Political Communities. The Impact of Populism and Extremism on the International Security Environment (Cham, Switzerland: Springer Nature, edited with C.F.Voinea and V.Sazonov, 2023)

Noel Foster is an assistant professor at the U.S. Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island. Previously he was a Postdoctoral Fellow in Technology and International Security at the UC Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation in Washington, DC. Noel received his Ph.D. in Politics from Princeton University in 2021. His research centers on how revisionist powers employ new technologies to reshape great power relations in their favor. With the generous support of a Minerva Research Initiative 2022-2025 grant, he is currently working with Helen Eglit and others in combining qualitative, experimental, and computational methods to unlock the mechanisms through which Russian and Chinese information operations shape public opinion and political behaviors in target states like Estonia.


Dr. Dr. Vladimir Sazonov works as Leading Research Fellow at Estonian Military Academy and Associate Professor at the University of Tartu. He teaches lectures on politics, history and security (Middle East, Russia). His research fields comprise hybrid warfare, Middle Eastern, Russian state ideology and information war. Sazonov has published numerous articles, books and volumes (e.g., Tartu University Press 2010, 2015 and 2017, 2021; Jim Eisenbrauns (Penn State University Press) 2016; Äripäev 2020; 2022; Springer 2021 etc) on Middle Eastern history, Russian state ideology and propaganda, also about politics and security.

Sub Unit

• International Relations and Regional Security

Chair

• Gia Mosashvili, Harvard University, New York University

Individual Presentations

• Russia's Sharp Power: The Case Studies of Estonia and Slovakia - Helena Eglit, Stanford University

• The Age of Polarization and Building an Ethno-nationalist Community in Estonia - Holger Mölder, Tallinn University of Technology

• Turn off, Tune Out, Turn Out: Alternative Media and Political Behaviors in Estonia, 2019 - Noel Foster, U.S. Naval War College