Warning Indicators and First-Year Students’ Academic Success: Predictive Models Using the MAP-Works Transition Survey

• In Event: Roundtable Session 38
  In Roundtable Session: Indicators of College Success

Abstract

We predict first-year spring cumulative GPA, based on Astin’s (1993a) Input-Environment-Output (I-E-O) conceptual framework, at a major midwestern university in the United States. Application of the I-E-O framework here adds to more traditional analyses by taking into account students’ behaviors and experiences during their first semester in a structural equation model. Student background characteristics and traditional measures of student academic integration based on research literature are combined with new early warning indicators that provide a novel set of variables measuring student integration (homesickness, social integration, goal commitment, academic adjustment, and evaluation of the university), to predict the impact on cumulative GPA of students’ early interaction with the higher education environment.

Authors

• Mack C. Shelley, II, Iowa State University

• Don F. Whalen, Iowa State University

• Hector Limon, Iowa State University

• Jie Sun, Iowa State University

• Frankie Santos Laanan, Iowa State University