Predictors of College Enrollment Among Urban Ninth-Grade Cohorts

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Abstract

Understanding how to keep more students on the path to high school graduation and college enrollment is one of the crucial questions for education researchers and policymakers. This study uses multinomial logistic regression analyses of longitudinal student cohort data from a large urban district, merged with data on college enrollment from the National Student Clearinghouse, to examine the impact of ninth grade attendance and performance on college enrollment outcomes, relative to the impact of later high school performance (cumulative GPA). Results indicate that even though cumulative GPA is, as expected, a somewhat better predictor than ninth grade GPA of college enrollment, few students with a ninth grade GPA lower than 2.0 go on to enroll in college directly after graduation.

Authors

• Martha Abele Mac Iver, Johns Hopkins University

• Matthew Messel, Johns Hopkins University