Uncovering the Influence of Social/Emotional School Readiness on Grade 12 Achievement and Likelihood of Incarceration

• In Event: Translating Research Into Policies, Educational Reform, and Community Change for Children’s Well-Being

Abstract

Objectives
We examine the relative importance of five developmental domains and 16 associated subdomains, measured during Kindergarten, in predicting Grade 12 achievement and likelihood of incarceration. We hypothesize that a) overall readiness will have a significant effect on each outcome, for both boys and girls; b) the importance of early social and emotional well-being for these outcomes will be more apparent when analyses focus at the subdomain level; and c) the important aspects of social and emotional development will differ by gender.

Perspective
Kershaw et al. (2009) demonstrated that halving the percentage of developmentally vulnerable kindergarten-age children would result in 8%-20% increases in on-time high school graduation and university eligibility. Associated economic consequences would be substantial, adding about 0.5% per year to GDP. In our study, we test the common assumption that language/cognitive readiness is the most predictive factor in future academic success.

Methods
Data were obtained from a longitudinal K-to-Grade 7 database of 9,854 children from British Columbia. Kindergarten teachers rated students using the 103-item Early Development Instrument (EDI), which measures five domains: physical health and well-being, social competence, emotional maturity, language/cognitive development, and communication/general knowledge. These domain scores can be divided into 16 subdomain scores. Using standardized reading and math results in Grade 7 and a variety of socio-demographic variables (home language, age, special needs, ESL, Aboriginal, French immersion), students were assigned scores for expected Grade 12 GPA and likelihood of incarceration, based on a synthetic cohort methodology described in Kershaw et al. (2010).
Multiple regression, using either five domains or 16 subdomains as explanatory variables, was employed to examine the influence of these early developmental characteristics on each outcome. Pratt indices (Thomas, Hughes, & Zumbo, 1998) were calculated to determine the relative importance of each predictor. Analyses were conducted separately for boys and girls.

Results
Table 1 presents the results for expected Grade 12 achievement. With five domains as predictors, language/cognitive development predominates for both genders. However, when using 16 subdomains as predictors, aspects of social competence (approaches to learning), emotional maturity (hyperactivity/inattention) and physical health and well-being (gross/fine motor skills) are now important for predicting grade 12 achievement along with aspects of language/cognitive development (advanced literacy skills, basic numeracy skills). This holds true for girls and boys. Variance accounted for in these models is 10%-15%.

Table 2 presents the results for expected incarceration. Here, we find less explained variance, and more gender differences. At the domain level, language/cognitive development still predominates for boys, but social competence and communication are also important for girls. At the subdomain level, approaches to learning and advanced literacy skills are strong predictors across gender. For girls, communication and overall social competence are also important, while for boys, hyperactivity/inattention is important.

Scholarly significance
These results provide direction for researchers interested in modeling the downstream effects of reducing vulnerability in key subdomains across the developmental spectrum. They are also food for thought for provincial policy-makers and school administrators regarding funding priorities before and after children begin their formal education.

Authors

• Barry Forer, The University of British Columbia

• Paul Kershaw, The University of British Columbia