Comparing Alternatives in the Prediction of College Success

• In Event: Roundtable Session 38
  In Roundtable Session: Indicators of College Success

Abstract

This study investigates the prediction of college success as defined by a student’s college GPA. We predict college GPA mid-way through and at the end of their college careers using high school GPA (HSGPA), college entrance exam scores (SAT/ACT) and an open-ended, performance-based assessment of critical thinking and writing skills (CLA). 3,137 college sophomores and 1,330 college seniors participated in this study. We found, using simple and multiple regression analyses, that HSGPA was the best single predictor of college GPA, but for sophomores, correlations increased when using HSGPA and SAT scores and HSGPA and CLA. For seniors, the best two predictors were HSGPA and CLA, indicating that the CLA may measure something different than the traditional predictors of college success.

Authors

• Doris Zahner, Council for Aid to Education

• Lisa Marie Ramsaran, New York University

• Jeffrey T. Steedle, Pearson