Problems in the Public Understanding of the Uncertainty of Science: Introduction to the Symposium

• In Event: Public Understanding of Science: The Educational Challenges of Scientific “Uncertainty”

Abstract

This introduction to the symposium will provide an overview of the issue of uncertainty in science and describe findings from multiple studies conducted by the author that highlight the problems of students’ misconceptions about this issue from an epistemological perspective. One of the foundations of scientific inquiry is the nature of the tentativeness of science, and scientists generally focus their work on the edge of uncertainty. Yet this is often fundamentally misunderstand by the lay public, who may erroneously believe that an absence of complete certainty undermines scientific claims. The media may be complicit in this process, in an attempt to present “both sides” of issues that have been largely resolved by scientific research, thereby manufacturing uncertainty in the minds of the public. Furthermore, science is often understood more as knowledge than as process, and more attention needs to be given to the latter, but in ways that go well beyond the traditional approaches to the scientific method and that address the epistemology of science.
Research in our lab suggests some of the problems with student misunderstandings. For example, in a set of studies on college students' beliefs about evolution (Hofer, Lam, & DeLisi, 2011) we found that students have misconceptions about the nature of "theory" in regard to the theory of evolution, leading them to demote evolution to a questionable hunch or hypothesis (66% of respondents). Only 7% of the college students surveyed viewed “theory” as an accepted explanation of a scientific phenomenon with substantial supporting evidence. Asked about the teaching of intelligent design, many students made comments such as the following: “If there is more than one theory, both should be taught. It is better to present all the information available and let the students make their own decision about what to believe.” In our longitudinal survey study of college students’ beliefs about evolution (n=122), we found that those who increased in their acceptance of evolution in a two-period were those who recognized the relative certainty of scientists’ position on the topic.

Recent research from our multi-method, multi-measure study of adolescent epistemological development (6th-12th grade; n=119) also sheds let on how students interpret the tentativeness of science as a discounting of scientific claims. Using think-aloud protocols during Internet searching, followed by an epistemological interview, we learned students also have a poor understanding of the causes of scientific uncertainty. In responses to questions about whether scientists could ever know for certain about how bees communicate, the majority of participants provided responses coded as multiplistic, such as “There will always be different opinions.” Furthermore, their reasoning suggests a poor understanding of scientific processes, e.g., “There are just so many bees out there to test and I think if they wanted to get closer to a better answer they would have to test as many bees as possible.” Results from these studies and others from our lab highlight the importance of scientific and information literacy, with implications for science education, which will be described.

Author

• Barbara K. Hofer, Middlebury College