Using the Freshman On-Track Indicator to Predict Graduation in a Midwest Urban District

• In Event: Using Data to Predict Student Outcomes

Abstract

The current study focuses on a freshman early warning indicator developed by the Consortium on Chicago School Research (CCSR), which takes into account Grade 9 course credits and failures in core courses. We apply this indicator to historical data from an urban Midwestern school district, and examine the degree to which the indicator differentiates freshmen who go on to graduate on time (i.e., within four years) from those do not. We also examine the association between the indicator and on-time graduation after controlling for student background characteristics and eighth grade achievement scores. This analysis provides information about the indicator’s predictive value beyond its association with student background.

Authors

• Heather Norbury, American Institutes for Research

• Manyee Wong, American Institutes for Research

• Yinmei Wan, American Institutes for Research

• Emily Metz, American Institutes for Research