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In this paper, we draw on the results of a large scale field test of TASK, an instrument that was developed to measure teacher's knowledge of student thinking within the context of looking at student generated work, to investigate the relationships between: (1) teachers' analysis of student thinking; (2) the ability to situate student strategies in a learning trajectory; and (3) instructional decision making. We use a structural pathways model to characterize the mechanism through which the analysis of student work influences instructional decision making. Our results suggest that increasing teachers’ ability to analyze student thinking in terms of both conceptual understanding and in relation to research-based learning trajectories can improve teacher capacity for effective formative assessment.