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Single-case designs (SCDs) use an experimental process where treatment is systemically manipulated by a researcher, performance is monitored over time, and the units of interest serve as their own control (Horner, Carr, Halle, McGee, Odom, & Wolery, 2005; Kratochwill, Hitchcock, Horner, Levin, Odom, Rindskopf, & Shadish, 2010; Segool, Brinkman, & Carlson, 2007). This research used ABAB graphs and Monte Carlo Simulation in R to evaluate how manipulated data per phase (i.e., baseline and treatment) and expected probabilities determine treatment effectiveness. Results indicated that when phase probability was fixed (.50) Type I error was conservative. Careful thought in design, data variation and duration of phases were discussed.