Evaluating the Michigan Promise Scholarship

• In Event: The Michigan Consortium for Education Research: A Research and Data Policy Partnership

Abstract

Objectives or purposes: The Michigan Promise Scholarship (MPS) was a state-wide merit based program designed to increase the share of Michigan High School graduates who enrolled in, and completed, college by reducing the cost of college. The program, which was effective for the graduating classes of 2007 and 2008 and provided up to $4,000 for tuition at an approved Michigan Institution was available to any public high school students who achieved a passing grade on the state-wide 11th grade exam. Students who completed two years of college, with at least a 2.5 grade point average could also apply to receive MPS funds. This paper evaluates the impact of the Michigan Promise Scholarship on postsecondary outcomes, including college enrollment, choice, and persistence.

Perspectives of Theoretical Framework: The standard model of human capital (Becker, 1994) clearly predicts that cost subsidies will increase the optimal level of schooling. Since the 1990s, more than a dozen states have established broad-based merit aid programs, designed to promote college enrollment and attendance among students with relatively modest academic credentials, including Georgia, West Virginia, and Massachusetts among others (Cohodes & Goodman, 2012; Cornwell & Lee, 2004; S. Dynarski, 2000; Scott-Clayton, 2011). Combined, although these studies do suggest that these kinds of programs can increase college enrollment and even completion, there is also evidence indicating that the considerable variation in program design substantially impacts their effectiveness (Dynarski, 2008; Scott-Clayton, 2009). This study provides further evidence that scholarship size and method of implementation may impact the overall policy impact of a program.

Methods: The study utilizes a regression discontinuity design to exploit the variation in students who fall just above or just below the cut off of passing four qualifying subjects (math, science, reading, writing) of a state-wide exam administered to all public school 11th grade students in Michigan. Because students within a narrow bandwidth around the passing cutoff score are arguably comparable, the design allows for a causal interpretation of the estimates.

Data: Utilizing the state of Michigan’s longitudinal data system, the study utilizes the universe of data for all public school students in 11th grade, for the graduating classes of 2007 and 2008, which are the only two years of graduates for whom the scholarship was available. The data are comprised of demographics, test scores, and college enrollment variables.
Results: Preliminary findings suggest no impact on college enrollment, college choice, or persistence for students who received the Michigan Promise Scholarship. These findings may be due to the comparatively small size of the scholarship, or the staggered nature of the award payout.

Significance: The study contributes to a growing body of literature that seeks to investigate the mechanisms by which similar merit based financial aid programs succeed in achieving the policy ends they are designed to meet. The study provides evidence that program design can significantly impact intended results.

Authors

• Brian A. Jacob, Harvard University

• Susan M. Dynarski, University of Michigan

• Barbara Schneider, Michigan State University

• Kenneth A. Frank, Michigan State University

• Rachel Rosen, University of Michigan