Can Psychosocial Factors Predict First-Year College Retention Beyond Standard Indicators? A Mixed-Effects Multinomial Regression Analysis

• In Event: Factors Influencing Retention in Postsecondary Education

Abstract

We examined the validity of using ten psychosocial factors (PSFs) for predicting first-year college retention. We fit a mixed-effects multinomial logistic regression model with retention status (stay, transfer, or drop) as the outcome to data from 9,364 students nested in 31 four-year institutions. Predictors included high school GPA, ACT composite score, gender, family income, race/ethnicity and the ten PSFs. We specified orthogonal contrasts to examine which PSFs differentiated “stay” from “transfer/drop” and “transfer” from “drop”. We cross-validated the parameter estimates using a holdout sample of 4,804 students. Results indicate Academic Discipline, Commitment to College, Social Connection, and Academic Self-Confidence incrementally predict first-year retention status beyond standard indicators and can be used to identify students at risk of “transfer/drop”.

Authors

• David R. King, Georgia Institute of Technology

• Edwin Ndum, ACT, Inc.