Turnout for What? Retrospective Voting Behavior in Local School Board Elections

• In Event: Roundtable Session 36
  In Roundtable Session: Evidence, Policy, and Politics

Abstract

Using data from California school board elections, public opinion polls, and school performance, this study examines (1) the extent to which school performance influences election voter turnout or incumbent fortunes and (2) whether changes in public opinion mediate this relationship. Overall, we find consistent evidence that changes in performance result in predictable changes in voter turnout (e.g., more people voting when performance dips). However, we do not find evidence that performance changes impact incumbent fortunes, nor do we find evidence that any relationships are mediated by public opinion. Our results suggest that while voters may be paying attention, there is a disconnect between the information provided and the beliefs people have about their local education officials.

Authors

• Richard Blissett, Vanderbilt University - Peabody College

• Ngaire Honey, Vanderbilt University