Examining the Ability of NAEP Mathematics to Predict College Admissions Immediately out of High School

• In Event: Marriott Roundtable Session 57
  In Roundtable Session: Using NAEP Data to Improve Practice and Examine Student Achievement

Abstract

Using data from the High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS:09) and the HSLS-NAEP overlap sample, we examined the relationship between NAEP performance and admission into postsecondary education immediately after high school. First, we examined the degree to which Grade 12 NAEP performance predicts admission at 4-year colleges. The second set of analyses examined the ability of NAEP to predict admission into colleges of varying degrees of selectivity. Using results from these analyses, we computed probabilities of admission at 4-year colleges and colleges with varying selectivity as a function of NAEP’s achievement levels. Finally, we examined the ability of NAEP mathematics to predict college admission relative to the SAT, both on its own and when controlling for high school GPA.

Authors

• Burhan Ogut, American Institutes for Research

• George W. Bohrnstedt, American Institutes for Research

• Markus Broer, American Institutes for Research