A Geospatial Analysis of Shifts in School and Neighborhood Demographics

• In Event: Tensions Between School Choice and Neighborhood Schools in the Changing City

Abstract

This paper provides a geostatistical analysis of the shifting demographic compositions of cities and the growth of school choice in an attempt to elucidate patterns in the demographic conditions that correlate with increases in school choice. Recent shifts in the racial, ethnic, and socioeconomic composition of cities has received significant attention from researchers and the public, particularly in regards to the ways in which these changes are reshaping elementary and secondary schools (Tate, 2012). In some places, a renewed interest in urban life has led to gentrification, while in other places changes in our economic system have prompted urban decay. At the same moment when these demographic changes have been taking shape in urban spaces, a powerful block of education reformers has advanced school choice models. In gentrifying spaces, school choice has been used to attract wealthier families into neighborhoods and school systems (Brown & Makris, 2017). In urban spaces where jobs are scarce and poverty is high, school choice has been viewed as a panacea to a range of social and economic problems (Chubb & Moe, 1990). Notably, as school choice reforms have exploded in urban areas, neighborhood schooling has persisted in most suburban and rural spaces. Given concerns that replacing neighborhood schools with schools of choice weakens social bonds in communities (Ravitch, 2010), it is not surprising that schools serving stable populations are more likely to maintain neighborhood schools than schools in urban areas with fluctuating populations.

In order to better understand the relationship between demographic shifts and the proliferation of school choice, this paper analyzes demographic trends of school-age children in the one-hundred largest US cities over the past twenty-five years. The study relies on data from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) Common Core of Data (CCD). First, the paper analyzes overall changes in the school-age population. After considering these large-scale trends, the paper provides an analysis of the changing demographic composition of the school-age population in terms of race, ethnicity, and poverty levels. Next, the paper considers the relationship between population change and growth in school choice. Urban areas are grouped into five categories based on the degree of population change and the nature of demographic shifts. Using these categories, the paper is able to analyze the ways in which distinct demographic trends correlate with the persistence of neighborhood schooling on one hand and the growth of school choice on the other.

Initial findings indicate that areas with greater amounts of demographic change are experiencing a more significant growth in school choice than areas with more stable populations. While this paper does not seek to provide insight into the value of school choice versus neighborhood schooling, it does highlight that communities with more stable populations appear to prefer neighborhood schools. More research is needed to understand why this pattern exists.

Author

• Ryan Coughlan, The City University of New York