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While there is a growing consensus that teacher experience matters, the process by which individual teachers improve from their experiences has received little emphasis. This paper investigates secondary mathematics teachers’ in-the-moment sense-making about their classroom experiences used to change instructional practices through point-of-view observations. It uncovers the types of causal reasoning secondary mathematics teachers use when they propose changes to their teaching that build on the substance of students’ existing thinking rather than attempt to fix or correct it. Two types of causal reasoning were found: identifying a productive pathway and reducing variance. These findings suggest certain types of causal reasoning may lead to certain improvements in teaching, and that teachers’ causal reasoning aligns with qualitative conceptions of causality.