The Effect of Academic Probation on Academic Outcomes: Evidence From the U.S. Air Force Academy

• In Event: 64.045 - Examining the Efficiency of Higher Education Policy

Abstract

Regression discontinuity analysis using a 15-year sample of student data from the U.S. Air Force Academy provides evidence that academic probation increases academic performance. Being on academic probation due to grades below a 2.0 cutoff as a first semester student increases the following semester's GPA by 0.141, an effect not explained by differential attrition. Although the effect on GPA does not persist beyond one semester, academic probation increases the probability of graduating with a STEM major by 13.9 percentage points. This provides evidence that academic probation may increase students study skills and/or confidence despite having no measurable long-term effect on GPA.

Author

• Aaron Albert, U.S. Air Force Academy