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First-generation college students face unique challenges within higher education that offer opportunities for research and interventions to improve their enrollment and retention in engineering. Using engineering identity and belongingness we examine connections between these measures in predicting certainty of engineering major. Certainty of major is used as a proxy for future persistence. Using structural equation modeling we analyzed data from 790 first-generation college students. We found that belonging in the engineering major is a mediating factor between engineering identity and certainty of engineering major. Whereas, belonging in the engineering classroom has a negative relationship between first-generation college students’ certainty of engineering major. These results have implications for ways in which this population may be better supported and retained in engineering programs.