Trajectories Toward University in a Stratified but Permeable System: Do Persistence and Effort Pay Off?

• In Event: 81.032 - MTCC Roundtable Session 37
  In Roundtable Session: 81.032-1 - Modeling the Effects of Organizational Factors on Student and Educator Outcomes

Abstract

Within a permeable education system, persistence and study effort might be important determinants of educational success. Using data from a 15-year panel survey (n = 4986, 43.8% male), this study examined to what extent tracking at the lower secondary level predicts students’ probability of moving to an academic or vocational program at the upper secondary level, and how this predicts the probability of ever enrolling in a university, when considering persistence and study effort. Results of a structural equation model suggest, inter alia, that attending an academic upper-secondary program predicted a roughly 42 percent higher probability of making a subsequent transition into a university. Other things equal, neither persistence nor study effort had a significant impact on this transition probability.

Author

• Kaspar Burger, University of Minnesota - Twin Cities