Ninth-Grade Attendance in Philadelphia: How Detailed Trajectories Relate to Student Outcomes

• In Event: 79.025 - On Track to Graduation in Philadelphia: Extending Research by Partnerships in Other Cities

Abstract

Objectives
The report aims to characterize school attendance among first-time 9th graders in the School District of Philadelphia (SDP). Daily attendance data for over 18,000 students were used to fully characterize patterns and changes in attendance across 9th grade. The report describes how these patterns vary with differing levels of risk for completing 9th grade off-track according to SDP’s definition (Authors, 2018). It also describes how this study connects to the session’s theme of leveraging district-researcher partnerships to enhance the relevance and quality of new evidence.

Framework
This paper is informed by research and theory that identifies life course transitions, including the transition to high school, as key moments of peril and opportunity. Outcomes of the transitions are shaped by individual attributes and characteristics of the larger ecosystem (Allensworth, & Easton, 2005; Balfanz, & Byrnes, 2012; Entwistle, & Alexander, 1998).
Methods
Data were first incorporated into a Business Intelligence (BI) dashboard, allowing for flexible visualization and exploration of attendance patterns across combinations of student characteristics (e.g., prior attendance, course grades), and temporal variables (e.g., different time windows within the year).
Patterns identified in the BI environment were first summarized with descriptive statistics. Where appropriate, additional analyses evaluated statistical significance and/or relative strength(s) of association(s).
Data sources
All analyses used de-identified, student-level, daily attendance data from two cohorts of SDP first-time 9th graders. These data were linked with student-level, administrative 8th and 9th grade data. Data from 18,890 students are included, though not all students appear in all analyses, depending on missing data.
Results
Overall Attendance (Figures 1-2):

The mean attendance rate for the sample was 90.9%. Over a full year, this corresponds to more than 16 absences (over 3 weeks of school).

Attendance drops from 8th to 9th grade, and this is true for all levels of 8th grade attendance.

Attendance Trajectories (Figures 3-4):

9th Grade attendance dropped during quarter 1, remained lower but stable through quarters 2 and 3, then dropped again during quarter 4.

Attendance tends to be lower for students that receive poor grades, but poor grades do not correspond to subsequent changes in attendance.

Association of Attendance Patterns with Student Outcomes (Figure 5, Table 2):

Students that end 9th grade Off Track begin the year with lower attendance than those that end up On Track; this difference gets larger as the year progresses.

Students with 4+ unexcused absences during Quarter 1 are substantially more likely to finish 9th grade off-track.

Scholarly Significance
To the best of our knowledge, this is the first analysis of 9th grade attendance at this level of temporal detail. This is an important addition to the extensive literature establishing that success during 9th grade is pivotal in students’ trajectories through high school, and beyond. A deeper understanding of the year-long shape of 9th grade attendance, and the range of variation, will allow development of better and more specific strategies to support this crucial year.

Author

• Theodore W. Wills, School Distrcit of Philadelphia