Early Indicators of Student Success: A Multistate Analysis

• In Event: 31.047 - Charting Trajectories for College Success

Abstract

This paper reports the results of a four-state collaboration that uses Student Unit Record Systems that track students from high school into college. The goal is to determine whether it is possible to accurately predict or identify which students will not graduate using very early indicators – variables available at college entry or during the first semester. Using statistical models we are able to identify those students at greatest risk of non-completion quite accurately at this very early stage, allowing college staff to prioritize interventions and supports aimed at improving retention and completion for those at greatest risk. Our models do not use gender, race or ethnicity in determining probability of non-completion.

Authors

• Paul Attewell, City College of New York - CUNY

• Matt Giani, The University of Texas at Austin

• Tod R. Massa, State Council of Higher Education for Virginia

• Nathan Wilson, Illinois Community College Board