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Conducting science fair experiments provides a potentially rich context for developing understanding of cause-effect relationships, one cross-cutting concept in the Next Generation Science Standards. However, little is known about students’ development of cause-effect relationships in this context—either in initial hypothesis development or after encountering anomalous data. Preliminary analyses of middle school students’ science fair posters indicate difficulties forming both general cause-effect relationships between variables and scientifically accurate explanations of causal mechanisms underlying predictions (and, consequently, accurate predictions). Although students generally adopted data-centric responses to anomalous data, encountering anomalous data rarely led to productive knowledge revision. Preliminary results indicate that students especially need more conceptual support when conducting science fair projects. (Final results will be included in the final paper.)