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Research has demonstrated that a variety of contextual factors, such as segregation and poverty, influence academic outcomes and opportunity. This empirical ecological study uses a random growth curve model of state-level data from 1980-2010 to investigate how mass incarceration explains state to state differences in the average level of and trend in averaged freshman graduation rates (AFGR). Even after controlling for poverty, unemployment rates, regional variation, racial demographics, and crime rates, higher incarceration rates are related to lower AFGR. Macro social polices matter when it comes to student outcomes. Policy-makers and stakeholders aiming to support the well-being and educational advancement of the most disadvantaged youth, must address how US criminal justice policies shape the educational system.