Decomposing GPA: Why Is High School GPA the Best Single Predictor of First-Year GPA?

• In Event: AERA Poster Session 10
  In Poster Session: Division D Section 1 Poster Session 3

Abstract

Despite lack of standardization, high school grade-point average (HSGPA) is the best single predictor of first-year postsecondary GPA (FYGPA). This study evaluated the extent to which HSGPA reflected academic achievement, social-emotional learning (SEL) competencies, demographics, and school characteristics. Dominance analysis revealed that academic achievement accounted for the most variance in HSGPA, and SEL competencies were also valuable predictors. In structural equation models, HSGPA was a significant mediating variable when predicting FYGPA from academic achievement, SEL, and gender. Overall, results were consistent with the interpretation of HSGPA as a multidimensional construct. The predictive value of HSGPA likely arises from similarity in the degrees to which HSGPA and FYGPA reflect academic achievement, SEL, and other personal and school characteristics.

Author

• Jeffrey T. Steedle, ACT, Inc.