Estimating the Impact of the 15-to-Finish Initiative: A Synthetic Control Method Approach

• In Event: AERA Poster Session 2
  In Poster Session: Division H Section 1 Poster Presentations

Abstract

This study estimates the impacts of the 15-to-Finish Initiative, an enrollment intensity program, on college student outcomes measured by the four-year graduation rate. Drawing on institutional census data from 16,849 first-time degree-seeking students enrolled from fall 2010 through fall 2014, and utilizing the synthetic control approach, we trained a model of student enrollment behavior using census data of fall 2010 to fall 2012 as pre-treatment group before adopting the 15-to-Finish, and applied the trained model to predict student enrollment behavior change and graduation outcomes using census data of fall 2013 to fall 2014 (post-treatment). Results indicate that the 15-to-Finish Initiative significantly increased enrollment of 15 or more credits and promoted a higher four-year graduation rate.

Authors

• John (Skip) Crooker, University of Nevada - Las Vegas

• Qingmin Shi, University of Nevada - Las Vegas

• Brent M Drake, University of Nevada - Las Vegas