On Track in Ninth Grade, Off Track in 10th: Classification and Regression Tree Analysis of School District of Philadelphia Students

• In Event: Advances and New Considerations in On-Track Indicator Systems

Abstract

Starting during the 2018-19 School Year, the School District of Philadelphia (SDP) implemented a new 9th Grade On-Track metric. This study focuses on building a model to identify subsets of 9th Grade On-Track students who may be at risk of failing to graduate on-time, despite satisfying the On-Track requirements. Using Classification and Regression Tree (CART) modelling, we find GPA and Average Daily Attendance are important predictors that distinguish 9th grade On-track students who are most likely to graduate within four years from those who are least likely. We further observe that achievement differences between sub-classifications manifest as early as the 10th grade year, and that sub-classification membership also predicts students’ performance on standardized tests of Literature, Biology and Algebra 1.

Authors

• Ji Eun Park, School District of Philadelphia

• Theodore W. Wills, School Distrcit of Philadelphia

• Joy Lesnick, School District of Philadelphia