The Long-Run Educational and Labor Market Returns of Race-Based Affirmative Action

• In Event: Race, Merit, and Equity in College Admissions

Abstract

There is widespread disagreement about less-competitive students' return to enrolling at more-selective universities, with proponents of the "Mismatch Hypothesis" arguing that the return may be negative. This study analyzes the effect of the University of California's former race-based affirmative action program on applicants' educational and labor market outcomes. I link all 1995-2000 UC applications to the National Student Clearinghouse and employment records from California's Employment Development Department. Using a difference-in-difference design around California's 1998 state-wide affirmative action ban, I find that UC admission increased Black and Hispanic applicants' six-year graduation rate by 19 percentage points and substantially increased their likelihood of high mid-career earnings. These findings are inconsistent with the Mismatch Hypothesis.

Author

• Zachary Bleemer, University of California - Berkeley