Context Matters in Career and Technical Education (CTE): School-Level Predictors of CTE Workforce Success

• In Event: Alternative Pathways: Career and Technical Education Training and Predictors of Workforce Success

Abstract

Important areas for past CTE research have been defining the field in general (Dortch, 2014), tracing pathways students follow from high school to postsecondary education (or directly) to employment in CTE fields (Dare, 2006), and studying how student or CTE program characteristics relate to student outcomes (Michaels, 2019). Such research has sharpened our understanding of both CTE labor markets and which student characteristics are associated with the pursuit of postsecondary CTE coursework and careers.
Recent studies using nationally representative data have linked individual-level high school CTE course-taking behavior to postsecondary CTE engagement and labor market outcomes (e.g., job distributions, wages) (Plasman et al., 2017, 2019; Sublett & Griffith, 2019). These studies have also helped describe how students differ on such outcomes by gender and race/ethnicity, and whether students at two- vs. four-year institutions differ in their CTE engagement. Conducted from an econometric perspective, such work has tended to use fixed effects models to adjust standard errors for student clustering (e.g., in schools) when considering indicators predictive of student-level outcomes. This study builds on such past work, turning toward institution-level research questions to address current knowledge gaps in two areas.
First, we do not know how much variance in CTE job outcomes is accounted for simply by institutional affiliation. This is a fundamental question we will answer in this presentation at both the high school and postsecondary levels. We then examine the second, more actionable topic of which specific contextual factors (e.g. institution type, number of CTE programs offered) account for observed institutional-level variance (and how much contextual variance is explained). That is, we will determine which institutional features distinguish schools whose graduates achieve positive CTE job outcomes (e.g., higher income, steady employment). While we expect some intuitive findings (e.g., schools offering greater numbers of CTE-focused curricular programs exhibit higher proportions of students obtaining CTE jobs), the many school-level variables collected in the nationally representative Educational Longitudinal Study (ELS) allow us to examine institutional characteristics at a fine-grained level beyond those studied previously.
This project ELS:2002 cohort data, containing post-secondary transcript and employment status data as of 2012 (8 years after high school). We estimate cross-classified multilevel models to partition outcome variance accounting for the complex nesting of students across multiple types of institutions (i.e., high schools and colleges). An unconditional model supports the calculation of secondary and postsecondary level intraclass correlations. We then estimate a series of conditional cross-classified models incorporating institution-level predictors, assessing whether institutional characteristics exhibit meaningful parameter estimates and calculating the proportion of institutional-level variance accounted for by each. Finally, we expand the models to include student-level predictors and cross-level interactions. Such results will answer key questions of whether institutional characteristics appear to moderate relationships observed between personal characteristics and CTE job outcomes.
Our results should inform institutional policy and the design of CTE programs. They may also have implications for individual decision-making to the extent postsecondary institutional features show associations with success among specific student subgroups. Implications for future research are also discussed.

Author

• Samuel Rikoon, Educational Testing Service