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Objectives: In this presentation, the changes in Japan’s education policy since the late 1990s are discussed with special emphasis the “more freedom of school choice” policy, testing whether social inequality in educational attainment could be reduced as an outcome of this measure.
Theoretical framework: According to sociological rational choice theory, students’ class-specific educational decisions at key transition points significantly contribute to educational and social inequalities. Yet, while theory missed to clearly accentuate all relevant actors’ influences on students’ decisions, research generally failed to adequately empirically account for students’ individual share in such decisions, but attributed their choices to family background and academic achievement. To account for these gaps, a refined rational choice model reflecting multiple (f)actors’ influence on students’ decision-making is introduced.
Methods: We empirically compare two student cohorts to test whether the yutori reforms have affected high school choice in Japan. Using the ranking of high schools as dependent variable, students’ final high school choices are predicted through multinomial logistic regressions. Family and schooling background as well as educational plans of students will be used to predict students’ likelihood to enter a General A, B, C, or a vocational high school at two points in time: 1995 and 2009. To realize comparisons between models and whole samples over time, the average marginal effects (AME) are estimated and displayed.
Data & Methods: To obtain sound conclusions on whether students’ freedom of school choice increased since the introduction of more freedom of choice in 1997 until very recently, I draw on data of the last two rounds of the Hyōgo High School Students (HHSS) surveys, conducted in 1997 (1310 students) and 2011 (1664 students). Both datasets include identical items on school life, socioeconomic background, and educational plans of 12th grade high school students enrolled in 10 differently ranking high schools (public and private) in Hyōgo prefecture (Kansai area), west central Japan.
Results: Students with concrete educational plans decisively impact their high school choice even when controlling for family background and academic achievement. Students thus clearly impact their own educational pathways and whether inequalities are reproduced. However, in spite of the recent policy shift towards more individual choice, students’ own educational plans have not become considerably more influential for their final high school placement in 2009 compared to 1995, implying similar constraints for individual choice still. Academic achievement remains decisive for school choice in Japan, indicating that the meritocratic principle has not lost its power in Japanese society.
Scientific significance: The findings of this study suggest that national education policies aiming to reduce inequality in educational attainment need to consider institutional constraints and significant others’ influence on school choice at key transition points, which largely determine whether socioeconomic disparities maintain.