Identification of Children at Risk at School Entry: Predictive Validity Using Longitudinal Data

• In Event: Promoting Success in Mathematics Education

Abstract

Many students fail to reach basic mathematical competences at the end of Grade 4 which are the prerequisites for acquisition of the lower secondary curriculum. Therefore early identification of students at risk for mathematical difficulties seems desirable. However studies indicate that the performance of young children is highly variable and early identification is therefore problematic. . The goal of this study is to examine the predictive validity for the identification of students at risk for not reaching basic national benchmarks. We found evidence that the at-risk classification can be used to identify students who on average will have lower mathematical achievement on the German national test but the individual classification is not satisfactory.

Authors

• Ann-Katrin van den Ham, University of Hamburg

• Aiso Heinze, Leibniz Institute for Science and Mathematics Education