Predicting Ohio School Levy Success

• In Event: School Finance Equity and the Challenge of Equal Opportunity

Abstract

Due to a constitutional amendment, Ohio school districts must continually vote to fund schools via tax levies. This study uses levy campaign expenditure and demographic data to examine what best predicts school levy passage. Finance reports for new levies in Ohio (2007-2016; N=272) found over half of cases (66%) had failed levies. All high support districts passed levies. Direct logistic regression found urban districts over five times more likely to pass a levy. Ballot year is a significant predictor of passage (post-2008 recession). For every dollar increase spent per vote, levy passage is more likely. Looking forward, levy passage in school districts may see higher rates of failure (post-COVID-19).

Authors

• Audrey Conway Roberts, Bowling Green State University

• Kristina N. LaVenia, Bowling Green State University

• Paul Andrew Johnson, Bowling Green State University