College Preparedness Benchmarks for the Grade 12 NAEP Mathematics Assessment

• In Event: Does NAEP Predict Student Postsecondary Preparedness?

Abstract

There is a growing interest in ensuring students are prepared for college and careers when they finish high school. Yet the Nation’s students do not appear to be prepared. According to the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), in 2019 only 37% of the 12th-grade students who took mathematics and reading assessments were prepared for college. Among those who are admitted, remedial coursetaking is prevalent (Radford & Horn, 2012).

Studies have shown that the most frequently noted college preparedness indicators are attendance, GPA, and test scores (Allensworth & Easton, 2007). However, it is difficult to use these indicators to determine the preparedness level of students. SAT and ACT use benchmarks that are indicative of performance in college, but only a select number of students take these assessments. Therefore, there is a need for benchmarks from a common metric that could be used across the nation.

NAEP as the “gold standard” for assessing what U.S. students know and can do is the perfect candidate to establish college preparedness benchmarks. A study, commissioned by the National Assessment Governing Board (NAGB), which established the NAEP preparedness indicator on mathematics, used longitudinal data from the state of Florida. The results showed that NAEP could predict successful end of first year college performance, defined as a 2.67 (B-) or better grade point average. However, the study was limited by the fact that the data came from just a single state and students who attended out-of-state or non-public colleges in Florida could not be followed (Fields, 2014).

To alleviate these limitations, the current study uses data from the High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS:09) to examine the relationship between NAEP performance and college preparedness, as defined by enrolling in a 2 or 4-year college with no remedial course-taking and having a first-year college GPA of B- or higher.

The results showed that NAEP explained a considerable amount of variation in postsecondary outcomes. When translated into probabilities of preparedness, the results showed that the NAEP Basic level corresponded to a 26% probability of being college prepared whereas the rates were 58% for students at the NAEP Proficient level (Figure 1.1). The probability of being college prepared for those at the NAEP college preparedness benchmark was 45%, indicating that the preparedness indicator established by the NAGB study may be low.

We also found differences in college preparedness by student groups. Conditional on performance level, Black students had higher probabilities of being college prepared than White or Hispanic students and female students had higher probabilities than male students (Figure 1.2). Students with higher SES had a higher probability of being college prepared than those with lower SES.

Taken together, the findings from the study provide strong evidence of the predictive validity of NAEP for a set of important outcomes related to college enrollment and attendance. The results of this study can further be used to identify alternative cut points on the NAEP scale (such as a 50%, 66%, or 75% chance of preparedness).

Authors

• Burhan Ogut, American Institutes for Research

• George W. Bohrnstedt, American Institutes for Research

• Markus Broer, American Institutes for Research