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Students from lower socioeconomic (SES) backgrounds encounter many financial barriers to earning four-year college degrees (BAs). They also have lower BA enrollment and attainment rates and less robust expectations than their higher SES peers. This study tests whether believing one’s family can afford college shapes expectations for earning a BA and whether this differs by SES. Using nationally representative data, fixed effects models show changes in affordability beliefs are positively associated with changes in BA expectations. This relationship is large and significant only amongst those from below-average SES backgrounds. Additional methods yield similar results. Therefore, it appears lower SES students’ motivation toward a degree increases when they believe college is affordable, supporting an identity-based application of Bayesian learning theory.