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It is increasingly clear that motivational interventions have heterogeneous effects on student populations. Current motivational theory fails to account for this heterogeneity. To better understand this phenomenon, we argue that the modeling of interventions needs a stronger grounding in self-regulated learning theory. With only minimal assumptions, we created a formal mathematical model of interventions and conducted a simulation. We conclude the following from our study: (a) average effect sizes are often misleading; (b) baseline variables are critical predictors of intervention effects; and (c) conventional methods of analysis fail to capture heterogeneity. Our model provides a starting point for understanding the heterogeneity of intervention effects, improving the efficacy and targeting of these interventions, and ultimately bettering existing theories of learning.