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How can the relationship between past and future performance in a widely used assessment system be leveraged to quantify general surgery trainee’s ability to perform a specific procedure? In this study of 63,248 assessment ratings, the relationship between past and future performance was examined, and when combined with other contextual factors, led to accurate and interpretable predicted performance expectations for general surgery residents across 193 unique procedures. Translating an assessment rating into a metric that conveys a trainee’s likelihood of performing a given procedure to a specific standard represents a crucial advancement in medical professional education.