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To date, there has been little predictive modeling of how FAFSA simplification will affect specific subpopulations of students, both in regard to Pell grant eligibility/awards and state financial aid eligibility/awards. Through a grant-funded partnership SHEEO and NASSGAP, we use data from the 2017-18 National Postsecondary Student Aid Study, Administrative Collection (NPSAS:18-AC) to explore and assess the stated aims as well as the unintended consequences of the FAFSA Simplification Act. The two primary goals of our study include: to assist state higher education agencies in predicting how federal and state financial aid eligibility will change nationally and in their state; and to identify unanticipated challenges associated with simplification. Our findings have implications for both federal and state financial aid policy.