The Relationship Between District COVID-19 Reopening Plan Signals and Pre-K–12 Enrollment Decline

• In Event: Sheraton Roundtable Session Eight
  In Roundtable Session: Pandemic Politics: Power, Policy, and COVID-19 Policy Making (Table 1)

Abstract

In the weeks before the 2020-21 school year, districts communicated their pandemic reopening plans. Prior research has established a relationship between district reopening mode and subsequent enrollment, including heterogeneity by grade and race. We explore this relationship in Missouri using data from a sample of district reopening plans. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we estimate that signaling intent to start the year with distanced instruction led to a three-percentage point enrollment decline beyond overall pandemic-era declines of four percent, driven by an additional 16 percentage point decline in pre-K and kindergarten. In a triple-differences estimation, we find enrollment declined an additional five percentage points for middle school students in in-person districts that did not require students to wear masks.

Authors

• Andrew R Diemer, Saint Louis University
  Presenting Author

• J. Cameron Anglum, Lehigh University
  Non-Presenting Author

• Aaron Park, Saint Louis University
  Presenting Author

• Amy Shelton, Saint Louis University
  Presenting Author

• Paula Langley, Saint Louis University
  Presenting Author