Mitigating the Looming Demographic Cliff on College Enrollment: Tuition-Free Public Higher Education in New York

• In Event: AERA Graduate Student Research in Progress Roundtable Session One
  In Roundtable Session: Outdoor Learning for College Prep, College Enrollment Trends, and Selective Hispanic-Serving Institution Engagement of Latinx Students (Table 10)

Abstract

Due to fertility changes following the 2008 Great Recession, demographers have identified a coming "enrollment cliff", whereby the 18-24 year-old population faces steep declines, leading to precipitous enrollment declines in higher education. I hypothesize that financial aid, particularly "free college" policies, may partially mitigate this decline. Using the case of New York, which implemented a free college program called the Excelsior Scholarship in 2017, I calculate population projections through 2031 using the cohort-component method for race-sex groups. By combining these projections with enrollment rates and other demographic characteristics, I find that the public university population in New York will decline tremendously by 2026 before rebounding somewhat in 2031. Though enrollments will decline, the enrolled population is projected to have changes in racial composition with particular growth among Asian students as others decrease. I offer recommendations for policymakers and institutional leaders on maintaining enrollments as the demographic cliff approaches.

Author

• Ramy Abbady, New York University
  Presenting Author