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Disparities in children’s achievement in primary grades impact their achievement trajectories over successive grades. Early child capacities, shaped by innate abilities and family and neighborhood experiences, are associated with later outcomes. However, the dominant factors in the Canadian context and the duration of their influence remain poorly understood. Using a retrospective longitudinal approach and a unique population-level dataset, we track changes in relative achievements from kindergarten to grade 9 for 100,000 students in Ontario, Canada’s largest province. Multilevel growth models confirm that cognitive-language capacities and socio-economic status in kindergarten significantly predict student math achievements by grade 9. These findings inform evidence-based decision-making and enable policymakers to optimize educational interventions regarding their timing, focus, and target populations.