Pandemic-Era School Staff Shortages: Evidence From Unfilled Position Data in Illinois

• In Event: School Staffing Challenges Through the Pandemic

Abstract

Perspectives
Research suggests that schools experience staff shortages, particularly in certain teaching positions (Goldhaber et al., 2015) and in schools that are rural (Goldhaber et al., 2020) or serve students of color (Edwards et al., 2022; Williams et al., 2021). However, research on this topic is mixed and has limitations. First, we lack evidence on recent changes in shortages despite concerns about the pandemic’s impact on turnover. Second, research often relies on indirect proxies for shortages, such as turnover or certification. Third, studies provide limited evidence about within-state or within-district variation. Fourth, existing research focuses on teachers, resulting in greater uncertainty about shortages of administrators and paraprofessionals.

Objectives
I contribute to this literature using statewide school- and district-level data on unfilled positions in Illinois to answer the following research questions:

1. What are overall teacher, administrator, and other certificated staff shortage rates, and how and why have they changed through the pandemic?
2. How do shortage rates differ between districts?
3. How do shortage rates differ between schools within districts?
4. How do shortage rates experienced by students differ by race, income, disability status, and English learner status?

Data
I use administrative data collected annually by the Illinois State Board of Education, including information on unfilled teacher, administrator, and other certificated positions collected each fall since 2017 (i.e., positions administrators are actively seeking to fill). I pull other school and district information from the Illinois Report Card.

Methods
For my first research question, on overall shortage rates and their evolution, I use basic descriptive methods. To compare shortages across districts and schools (RQs 2 and 3), I estimate regression models predicting shortage rates at the district (school) level as a function of district (school) characteristics and county (district) fixed effects. For my fourth research question, I estimate weighted averages of staff shortage rates at the district and school levels, where the weights are the numbers of students enrolled belonging to groups of interest.

Results
Even in the fall of 2022, after enrollment declines and increases in employed staff, teacher (administrator) vacancies amounted to just 2.6% (1.0%) of prior-year employment. Yet shortage rates of other staff – mostly paraprofessionals – are at least 2.4 times more severe both pre- and post-pandemic. Pandemic-era growth in unfilled positions appears to be driven more by hiring than by attrition. Shortages vary within districts and across urbanicity, grade level, and student characteristics, often in ways that likely exacerbate inequities. For instance, the mean Black student attends a school where the teacher vacancy rate is 3.6 times higher than the mean white student. However, in no case can my models explain even half of the between-school variation in shortage rates for any type of staff.

Significance
These findings highlight where policy interventions can focus to address shortage areas of greatest need (e.g., paraprofessionals, schools serving Black students). Additionally, this study emphasizes the importance of including non-teaching staff in future research and of developing rigorous frameworks and definitions for understanding staff shortages.

Author

• Paul Bruno, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign