College Canceled: What Happened to California’s High School Graduating Class of 2020?

• In Event: Understanding the Role of Undermatching and Institutional Selectivity in College Choice

Abstract

Using individual level administrative data from California, this study examines college enrollment changes driven by the pandemic. We find sizable negative effects on college enrollment for the California high school graduating class of 2020. These enrollment declines were largest at community colleges and for under-represented minority students, low-income students, and students from high schools with low college-sending rates. At the same time, enrollment in the highly selective UC system increased slightly. These enrollment gains were concentrated among Asian and White students and those who attended high schools that historically send a large share of their graduates to college. Thus, the pandemic appears to have worsened inequalities both in overall college enrollment, and also in access to more elite institutions.

Authors

• Scott Carrell, University of California - Davis

• Kramer Anketell Dykeman, University of California - Davis

• Paco Martorell, University of California - Davis

• Michal Kurlaender, University of California - Davis