Changes in Sub-Baccalaureate CTE (Career and Technical Education) Student Outcomes and the Local Labor Market in a Post-Pandemic World

• In Event: COVID-19 and Community Colleges: Can Timely Research Accelerate Their Recovery and Support Racially Minoritized Students?

Abstract

Although student enrollment in sub-baccalaureate institutions is rebounding, it is still below pre-pandemic levels and not all academic programs are experiencing the same increases in enrollment. The labor markets surrounding these colleges have also changed since the pandemic. As early as Tinto (1973), researchers have acknowledged that the labor market influences a student’s decision to enroll in college, and that students may change their educational goals based on demand for occupations in their local labor market (Reyes et al., 2019; Stuart et al., 2014). Geography of opportunity theory explains how residential location predicts economic opportunities (Tate, 2008), and describes the importance of where a student lives in determining their educational opportunities (Galster & Killen, 1995; López Turley, 2009; Reyes et al., 2019). We utilize this prior literature to support this paper, which will present the analysis of student career and technical education (CTE) outcomes and changes in the local labor market demand for CTE programs and clusters.

The paper will answer the following research questions:

(1) To what extent are there observable changes in CTE coursetaking, concentration, and completion pre- and post-pandemic?; and
(2) To what extent are there observable changes in the local labor market for CTE occupations pre- and post-pandemic?

The questions will be answered by a descriptive analysis on quantitative, student-level data on CTE course taking, concentration, and completion. Similarly, researchers will complete a descriptive analysis of the economic data at the county and service area levels. The findings of this project will help researchers better understand how the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the CTE student outcomes and labor market demand by CTE Cluster, paying special attention to the experiences of racially minoritized students. These results can inform policies to support the local labor market and improve students’ economic opportunities.

The researchers received student-level data from Florida’s statewide longitudinal data system from 2016-2017 through 2022-2023. The data files include students enrolled in Florida’s 28 state colleges and 78 district technical colleges. The labor market data was obtained through Burning Glass and includes shift share, location quotient, wages, and employment. The research team translated the Standard Occupational Classifications (SOC) codes into the Career Cluster framework using the SOC-to-Career Cluster crosswalk by Advance CTE.

The final results of this paper are forthcoming. Preliminary analyses show decreases in student enrollment after 2020 (see Figures 1 and 2). There is also significant variation in labor market demand over time statewide (see Figure 3). The full conference paper will present student-level results with similar enrollment data, in addition to concentration and completion data through 2022-2023. Similar labor market data will be presented, with data disaggregated by service region that aligns with each state and district technical college’s geographic location.

Author

• Jenna Terrell, WestEd