Predicting Bar Success: The Mediating Effects of Law School GPA

• In Event: Predicting Performance for Learner Success in the Professions

Abstract

Legal education studies often link undergraduate GPA (UGPA) and LSAT score to bar exam performance, neglecting the role law schools play in preparing students for the licensing test. However, other established research has found that law school GPA (LGPA) is a stronger predictor of bar success. We investigate whether UGPA and LSAT score directly predict bar exam performance, or whether this relationship is explained by their connection to LGPA. We find that LGPA fully mediates the relationship between these preadmission factors and bar performance, indicating that what happens in law school significantly contributes to bar passage. Law schools should consider deemphasizing these traditional application metrics, particularly in a post-affirmative-action admissions landscape.

Authors

• Jason Scott, AccessLex institute

• Andrea Pals, AccessLex Institute