Aiming High or Falling Short? Longitudinal Study on Educational Aspirations of Chinese Adolescents

• In Event: AERA Roundtable Session Wednesday 10:50 am Four Seasons Ballroom 2-3
  In Roundtable Session: Adolescents and Young Adults' Academic Identity, Aspirations, and Outcomes (Table 5)

Abstract

Educational aspirations are key predictors of academic and career success, yet their evolution over time is less understood. This study examines the trajectories of educational aspirations among 789 Chinese adolescents aged 11 to 15, using data from the China Family Panel Studies collected in 2016, 2018, and 2020. The analysis identified 110 distinct trajectories from 512 possible paths. Cluster heatmap analysis showed 38.5% of participants maintained consistent aspirations for higher education, while the rest displayed upward or downward changes. These findings highlight the dynamic and heterogeneous nature of educational aspirations, emphasizing the importance of understanding not just who receives education, but who aspires to it. Future research should explore differences by gender, household registration status, and family socio-economic status.

Author

• Yulu Hou, Michigan State University