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Drawing on system dynamics theory, we simulate the behavior of self-regulated (discrepancy reducing) learners over time. We analyze the effects of changing students’ learning rates (learning strategies), their intercepts (prior knowledge or teaching effectiveness), and norms of study (goals for achievement). We uncover several situations where educational interventions may affect student achievement in the short-run, but typical cross-sectional analyses will find no measurable effect in the long-run. Our results indicate that interventions will show the largest effects on achievement outcomes when students are working under time constraints and are struggling to achieve their desired performance. Furthermore, we conclude that self-regulated learners may be the hardest learners to help, a phenomenon we call the “self-regulated learning paradox.”