False Signals: How Pandemic-Era Grades Mislead Families and Threaten Student Learning

• In Event: Family Engagement as an Equity-Driven Strategy for Improving Student Outcomes

Abstract

During the pandemic, the average U.S. public school student lost the equivalent of half a year of learning in math and a quarter of a year in reading on state tests. At the same time, students are missing school more than ever. In 2023, student absenteeism was at an all-time high and chronic absenteeism has increased in every state since 2019, sometimes doubling or even tripling its pre-pandemic rate.

Yet families report only modest concern about missed learning: post-pandemic surveys show that most parents believe their kids are already on grade level. We hypothesized that some of this disconnect is due to grades – families’ most trusted signal of student performance at school. In national surveys, more than 8 in 10 say that their child gets all Bs or above, a finding that remained virtually unchanged throughout the pandemic. Most families see Bs as a sign that their kids are on track.

To test this hypothesis, we partnered with two school districts to understand how the messages families received about their student’s performance have changed since the pandemic’s onset, and how they compare to two other key educational outcomes: achievement and attendance. Both districts provided historical data on students in grades 3-12 and the grades they earned in all courses since the 2017-18 school year. Using this data, we asked the following research questions:

1. To what extent has student performance as measured by grades, test scores, and attendance, changed from pre-pandemic to present day?
2. To what extent has the relationship between grades and student outcomes (test scores and attendance) changed from pre-pandemic to present day?
3. What student and school characteristics are associated with changes to the relationship between grades and student outcomes from pre-pandemic to present day?

Using a combination of simple descriptive statistics and within-student fixed effect regression models, we found that compared to 2018-19, the average student in 2021-22 was five months further behind in math and English Language Arts (ELA) and missed one to two more weeks of school. Yet most students still earned the same grade—or better—in 2022 as they did in 2019. Grades provided a different signal post-pandemic: the exact same student who earned the exact same grade in 2022 as in 2019 was estimated to score 0.15 to 0.30 standard deviations lower on their end of year state assessment and miss approximately 10 to 15 additional school days. Notably, the number of students not yet on grade level and chronically absent quadrupled. Yet more than 40 percent of these students still earn Bs or better in core subjects. Historically marginalized students were more likely to have lower outcomes given the same course grade, and this difference for absenteeism widened after the pandemic.

Our analysis provides evidence that grades, families’ most trusted indicator of academic standing, are not accurately signaling this new reality in which students need more support. We provide recommendations to both districts and families on how to begin to address this.

Author

• Adam Maier, TNTP