Future Votes Cast: Predicting First-Time Voter Turnout from Eighth-Grade Students’ Expected Electoral Participation Using ICCS Data (Poster 7)

• In Event: Division H: Global Perspectives on Standardized Assessment

Abstract

The International Civic and Citizenship Education Study (ICCS) provides standardized data on eighth graders' civic knowledge and attitudes toward civic participation. Engagement in civic activities, such as voting, is vital for a functioning democracy, with voter turnout serving as a key indicator of democratic health. Recent declines in voter turnout, particularly among young voters, raise concerns, highlighting the need for effective civic education to foster political engagement (Donbavand & Hoskins, 2021; Sant, 2019). This study explores whether students’ expectations to vote, assessed in ICCS 2009 and 2016, can predict their actual voting behavior as young adults. By comparing expected electoral participation with real turnout data from first-time voters in subsequent presidential elections, we aim to assess the predictive validity of ICCS data. Preliminary findings indicate a moderate positive correlation (r = .46) between expected participation and actual voter turnout, suggesting valuable insights into the factors influencing civic engagement.

Authors

• Marlen Holtmann, IEA Data Processing and Research Center

• Sabine Meinck, IEA Hamburg