Shift Happens: Tracing COVID’s Impact on 2017–2018 Fourth Graders Across States Over Four Years

• In Event: AERA Poster Session Wednesday 1:45pm
  In Poster Session: Data-Driven Decision Making in Education SIG Poster Session

Abstract

This study presents a framework for clustering U.S. states and modeling policy diffusion pathways in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using demographic, economic, geographic, and governance data, states were grouped through hierarchical and consensus clustering. Two Grade 4 cohorts, one from 2017–18 and another from 2021–22, were compared to assess pandemic-related disruptions, while a longitudinal analysis tracked the 2017–18 cohort through Grade 8. A composite “resilient improvement” index, which captured both academic standing and progress over time, was used to identify exemplary education systems. Findings revealed stable state clusters and wide variation in recovery trajectories. Three Interstate Policy Diffusion Maps (IPDMs) visualize potential pathways for policy learning among comparable states seeking to strengthen educational resilience.

Authors

• Vinh Quang Tran, St. John's University

• Gulnur Ozbek, St. John's University