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Using the Theory of Planned Behavior, this study explores why academic master’s students in China’s “Double First-Class” universities no longer pursue a PhD, integrating time, individual, and contextual dimensions. Tracing their three-year graduate experiences, it outlines five dynamic stages of intention change, builds a psychological mechanism model, and identifies structural influences. Results indicate that the decision to forgo a PhD arises from interactions between micro-level psychological mechanisms and macro-level socio-ecological factors, beyond mere market rationality. This study offers a multidimensional framework for understanding the decision to abandon doctoral aspirations and provides evidence-based guidance for targeted interventions to support academic talent development.